Wall Street Says the Stock Market's Return Will Crush the Long-Term Average in the Next Year

💡 Professional investors are bracing for a potentially brutal year, with the S&P 500's expected return set to fall short of its long-term average.

The S&P 500's expected return for the next year is on pace to crush its long-term average. According to a recent analysis by Yahoo Finance, the stock market's return will likely fall short of its historical average. This comes as investors are already bracing for a potentially brutal year.

Market Outlook 2024

The S&P 500's long-term average annual return is around 10%, but some forecasters predict that the market will only deliver around 2-3% in the next year. This would be a significant downturn from the 16% return seen in 2023. $SPY has been a consistent performer over the long-term, but its expected return for the next year is far from guaranteed.

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates high is a major factor in the expected decline in stock market returns. With inflation still running above target, the Fed is unlikely to ease policy anytime soon. This means that investors will need to be prepared for a potentially long period of low returns. $TLT has been a safe-haven asset in recent years, but its prices may continue to fall if interest rates remain high.

What It Means for Investors