wall street choice·
Macro·Jun 27, 2026·4 min read

US Stocks Close Solid First Half as Jobs Data, Rate Bets Take Center Stage

💡 Markets await key jobs data and rate hike bets to drive the second half of the year.

US Stocks Close Solid First Half as Jobs Data, Rate Bets Take Center Stage
Photo: AI Generated

The US stock market closed its first half on a solid note, with the S&P 500 index up 5.5% year-to-date. However, investors are now looking ahead to key jobs data and rate hike bets to drive the second half of the year.

Jobs Data Takes Center Stage

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its July non-farm payrolls data on Friday, with economists predicting a 175,000 increase in jobs. A strong reading could lead to a reevaluation of the Fed's interest rate trajectory, with some analysts expecting a 25-basis-point hike in the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Rate Hike Bets in Focus

The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its hawkish stance has kept rate hike bets alive, with the probability of a September hike at 45% according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. A rate hike would likely lead to a sell-off in bond markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially rising to 4.9%.

What It Means for Investors

💬 The upcoming jobs data and rate hike bets will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the US stock market in the second half of the year. Do you think the S&P 500 will hold above 4,000? Share your view in the comments.

#us stocks#jobs data#rate hike bets

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