UBS Sees Volatility Ahead for Gold, Oil, and Base Metals Amid Geopolitical Risks

💡 UBS warns of increased volatility for key commodities as geopolitical tensions escalate.

The escalating tensions between major world powers have led to increased uncertainty in the commodity markets, with UBS warning of potential volatility ahead for gold, oil, and base metals.

The Swiss bank's commodity analysts point to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising US-China trade tensions, and the impending US election as key factors contributing to the heightened uncertainty.

Gold Outlook 2026

Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with UBS analysts predicting a range of $1,800 to $2,000 per ounce. This is due in part to the potential for increased demand from central banks, as well as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

Oil Market Update

Oil prices have been impacted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Brent crude prices rising to $115 per barrel. UBS analysts predict that oil prices will remain volatile in the near term, with the potential for further price increases if the conflict escalates.

Base Metals Outlook

Base metal prices are also expected to remain volatile, with UBS analysts predicting a range of $3,000 to $4,000 per ton for copper. This is due in part to the ongoing demand from the renewable energy sector, as well as the potential for further price increases due to supply chain disruptions.

What It Means for Investors